The focus of stimulus policies will also vary in different consumer sectors. The reporter learned that in the field of commodity consumption, it is focused on subsidies, looking for new consumer highlights, and forming a new driving force for consumption; in the service consumption sector, more needs to expand the service sector on the supply side; in terms of consumption, it is necessary to adopt fiscal Reward and other means, encourage the development of credit consumption, e-commerce, online shopping and other consumer formats, in order to change consumption patterns and increase consumer leverage.
Furniture and building materials used to replace the old pilot
In Beijing, some furniture circulation companies have taken the lead in piloting. Consumers who purchase new furniture can hand over the old furniture to the store for recycling. Regardless of the original price of the old furniture and the old and new, it will be deducted at a discount of 5% of the new furniture turnover.
Targeted stimulus policies have been introduced for some of the faster-growing products, and the effect of bright-point consumption to drive consumption growth has been an effective and most commonly used means.
Since 2009, the Chinese government has successively introduced policies that include household appliances, cars going to the countryside, and trade-in, subsidies for energy-saving products. China's home appliances and car sales have hit record highs and have become the backbone of consumption.
As consumer stimulus policies are expiring, the search for new highlights of consumer products as the focus of the next round of policy support has become a top priority.
Energy-efficient home appliances took the first place. In May this year, the State Council executive meeting studied policies and measures to promote the consumption of energy-saving appliances and other products, decided to arrange financial subsidies of 26.5 billion yuan, and started to promote air-conditioning, flat-panel TVs, refrigerators, washing machines and water heaters that meet energy-saving standards. year.
In addition to energy-saving home appliances, Zhao Ping, deputy director of the Consumer Economics Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that policies should lead to the formation of new consumption growth points. At present, the consumption growth of China's furniture, construction and decoration materials has shown strong endogenous growth momentum. It is necessary to introduce corresponding expansion of consumption policies for the above-mentioned commodities, boost the growth of consumption of these commodities, and create new consumption hotspots.
"Furniture, building decoration materials, etc., the growth rate is more than 25%, but there is no corresponding policy stimulus." Zhao Ping said that although the sales growth rate of these products last year has declined somewhat, this year's growth rate is not very high, but its It ranks among the top three in terms of social retail consumption. If these products can receive policy support, the development space will undoubtedly be broader.
In 2012, 7 million sets of affordable housing will be built nationwide, of which 4 million will be completed by the end of the year. Unlike commercial housing, the occupancy rate of affordable housing is almost 100%. The construction of affordable housing will provide stable demand for furniture consumption. In addition, the rigid demand for second- and third-tier cities that have not yet been restricted will also drive the gradual release of the growth potential of furniture, construction and decoration materials. In the first-tier cities where the purchase restriction policy has a greater impact, after the upgrading of automobiles and home appliances, the consumption of furniture products may become an important carrier for the upgrading of consumption structure.
According to experts, the consumption growth of furniture, construction and decoration materials will reach nearly 30% in 2012, which has become an important highlight of consumption growth.
The expansion of furniture trade-in and building materials to the countryside has become a policy of greater voice. At the 2012 work conference, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce clearly stated that in order to improve the long-term mechanism for promoting consumption, this year, we will explore various projects for the benefit of the people. Lu Yan, director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce, also told the media in July that Beijing’s “furnishing for furniture†policy will be officially announced in the near future.
In fact, in Beijing, some furniture circulation companies, such as the home of the family, have taken the lead in piloting. The specific operation is that consumers who purchase new furniture can hand over the old furniture to the store for recycling. Regardless of the original price of the old furniture and the old and new, it will be deducted at a discount of 5% of the new furniture turnover.
Shen Danyang, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the policy of replacing old furniture with new ones is now being tested and promoted by the local commercial department. The Ministry of Commerce has a positive support attitude. "The pilot always has a process. If the pilot is good, it should be summarized. If possible, promote it nationwide."
A research report by Dongxing Securities pointed out that if the furniture trade-in policy is only implemented in Beijing, the overall furniture consumption will be less than 0.5%; if it is implemented nationwide, it will be able to pull about 15 according to the experience of home appliance trade-in. % of terminal consumption, furniture domestic sales growth rate will reach 35%.
Service consumption should introduce more specific policies
This year's government work report has mentioned that it is necessary to vigorously develop service industries such as social pension, housekeeping, property, and health care. Encourage consumption of culture, tourism, fitness, etc., and implement a paid vacation system
In addition to commodity consumption, the market has become more concerned about service consumption, and the proportion of service consumption has increased.
“In fact, whether consumption growth is sustainable or has a direct relationship with consumption. Consumption growth is also in line with the barrel theory. If there is a short board, the ratio is very high, and the growth rate is very slow, the total consumption is definitely It is dragged down.†Zhao Ping said that even if some policies are introduced in the short term to support certain commodity consumption, total consumption growth is difficult to sustain. This short board is service consumption.
At present, China's service consumption growth rate has not increased so fast that commodity consumption has been so fast. Service consumption has been constrained by supply bottlenecks. The supply of services such as housekeeping, pension, leisure, culture and fitness has not been insufficient. In addition, the price of service products is high, and the consumption of the people is also suppressed by high prices.
It is understood that at present, China's service consumption growth is only in one digit, while commodity consumption is in double digits. This year's consumption growth rate is at a low level of around 13%, but even this increase is much higher than the growth rate of service consumption.
"Therefore, I believe that the stimulus policy for expanding consumption should not only focus on commodities, but also should be extended to the service sector. Policies should be based on the characteristics of China's economy entering the middle and late stages of industrialization and the peak of urbanization, and timely home economics, pension, education, and health care. The consumption of services such as mass catering is included in the policy support, promoting China's economy to enter the era of service economy from the middle and late stages of industrialization, and promoting the mode of economic development from focusing on economic growth to balancing economic growth and improving people's livelihood. Service consumption is growing rapidly," said Zhao Ping.
Zhao Ping believes that there should be a tangible policy for service consumption. It should not be a guiding and guiding policy. There should be more specific policies. For example, in addition to subsidies for purchasing services, other support policies can be explored. . More important is to break through the service bottleneck, that is, to vigorously develop the service industry on the supply side, let the industry grow up as soon as possible, and provide consumers with abundant services.
This year's government work report has already mentioned that it is necessary to vigorously develop service industries such as social pension, housekeeping, property, and health care. Encourage consumption of culture, tourism, fitness, etc., and implement a paid vacation system.
The reporter learned that the "Service Industry Development Plan (2011-2015)" led by the National Development and Reform Commission has also been finalized. The planning requirements put the key areas of modern logistics, high-tech service industry, cultural industry, e-commerce and tourism into a more prominent strategic position, and strengthen the service industry as the main driving force. Targets By 2015, the share of services in GDP increased from 43.1% in 2010 to 47.1%.
Credit card consumption card rate reduction will become a reality
The adjustment of the new bank card merchant POS billing fee standard will also be lowered. Zhang Zhigang, former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce and president of the China Business Federation, revealed that measures to reduce the rate of card-swapping have been approved by the State Council and will soon be implemented.
In addition to the stimulus policies for products and services, the introduction of appropriate stimulus policies in guiding consumption patterns is also conducive to increasing the total consumption, the most typical of which is credit consumption and online consumption.
The domestic trade "12th Five-Year Plan" clearly mentions that it is necessary to guide new consumption methods, encourage the development of credit consumption, support commercial and trade service enterprises to expand the scale of credit sales, actively develop rental consumption, and vigorously cultivate the automobile rental market; actively develop e-commerce and networks. Shopping and other consumer formats.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, in 2011, China’s e-commerce transaction volume reached 5.88 trillion yuan, equivalent to 12.5% ​​of the GDP of the year. As of the end of 2011, China's online shopping users reached 119 million, network application utilization rate reached 37.8%, online retail sales reached 782.56 billion yuan, an increase of 53.7%, and total online retail sales accounted for 4.32% of total social consumption retail sales.
In terms of credit consumption, the number of credit card holders in China has reached 2.85 trillion. In 2011, China’s credit card spending reached 4.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 22.6% of total social consumer retail sales, while credit consumption in developed countries accounted for total consumption. 2/3 or more.
“The scale of credit consumption and network consumption has been large enough to affect the share of total consumption.†Zhao Ping said that these fast-growing consumption methods should also consider the introduction of corresponding policies, such as the interest subsidy of credit consumption, online consumption. The normative issues of consumer rights protection and management can introduce some policies to make the cost of consumption lower and the safety and convenience of consumption higher."
Qiang Qijing, a macro analyst at Soochow Securities, also believes that discounts on credit consumption, especially support for credit card consumption, can boost consumption growth. “Specifically, short-term stimulus policies should consider consumer credit stimulus policies and provide financial interest subsidies for credit consumption. To change consumption patterns and increase consumption leverage."
The reporter also learned that the new bank card merchant POS receipt fee standard adjustment will also be lowered. Zhang Zhigang, former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce and president of the China Business Federation, said that the measures to reduce the credit card rate have been approved by the State Council and will soon be implemented.
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