The overall trend of paper products: paper prices are generally stable. Compared with last week, the price of double-adhesive paper remained unchanged this week; the price of coated paper rose slightly by 0.10% this week; the price of gray-white paper and white cardboard remained unchanged this week; the price of corrugated paper in November showed a correction, down 3.79% The prices of other paper grades such as cardboard paper and kraft paper remain unchanged.
Raw material price trends: During the week, European pulp prices (in euros) fell, while dollar pulp prices rose. This week, the RMB has appreciated to a certain extent in the currency exchange rate of the major producers. The price of imported Fengyao wood pulp brand (RMB) rose slightly by 0.44% this week, and the monthly increase was 1.82%. Due to tight supply, traders are reluctant to sell, etc., the waste paper, which is the main raw material for cardboard and newsprint, continued to rise this week. The US, waste, and waste papers were 1.74% and 1.67, respectively. % and 1.87%; monthly increases of 4.92%, 4.95% and 6.33%, respectively.
Production data: The cumulative output of paper products has increased significantly year-on-year, and the cumulative output of pulp has decreased year-on-year. Since 2009, the growth rate of paper products has risen sharply and then increased with the recovery of demand. The total output of paper products in the first 11 months reached 84.67 million II, and the cumulative growth rate was further increased from 8.61% in the previous October to 10.11%; The total monthly pulp output was 17.56 million tons, which was reduced to 8.12% year-on-year (-10.34% in the previous October), indicating that the operating rate of domestic pulp mills is gradually recovering.
The decline in the volume and amount of imports of paper products slowed down, the volume of pulp imports increased significantly, and the decline in the amount slowed down; the export volume of dominant paper species increased rapidly, and the decline in imports slowed down. The cumulative decline in the volume and amount of imports in November was further reduced to -9.12% and -14.57%; the cumulative growth rate of pulp imports in November reached 43.49%; and the decline in November has rebounded to -1.89%. According to the paper type, the export volume of coated paper in April-July was more than 50%, and the growth rate has slowed down since August, from October to 16.22%; the export growth rate of double glue and white paper in October They were 16.67% and 67.21%, respectively.
Industry investment logic, ratings and stock recommendations. Next year, the main line will expand capacity of the dominant paper type, that is, the listed company with the new project as the dominant paper type and larger than the original scale expansion is the investment target. Several price adjustments since the third quarter have prompted major paper companies to increase their profit margin by more than 60% in the third quarter. In November, some leading companies' dominant paper types such as white cards will raise prices again, which will further consolidate the growth forecast in the fourth quarter. However, the consistency of the price increase manufacturers is weak, and there is a partial contradiction in the downstream. It is expected that the profit of the dominant paper type tons will reach a stage high and will be stable in the future. Maintain the industry's “Neutral†rating. According to the valuation of next year's performance, the paper industry mainly recommends Bohui Paper, Sun Paper and Chenming Paper. We are still optimistic about the long-term growth of Hexing Packaging.
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